US EIA: CO2 to rise by 60% by 2030
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted that global carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 60% between 2004 and 2030.
“In its annual International Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration predicts oil consumption will grow by 42 per cent, natural gas consumption by 65 per cent, and coal consumption by 74 per cent.
As a result, unless policies are changed, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 59 per cent to 42.9bn tonnes a year by 2030, the EIA believes.
The oil price makes little difference to predicted total energy use: total consumption with oil at $100 a barrel in 2030 is very similar to its level with oil at $34 a barrel, although the mix is different, with more coal and less oil in the high-price scenario.
The growth in energy demand and emissions is driven by developing economies, particularly China, and their increased use of coal-fired power stations.
China accounted for 13 per cent of world energy use in 2004; by 2030, that proportion is expected to rise to 21 per cent. The EIA thinks China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest user of energy sometime in the early 2020s.
China’s consumption of oil and of coal is expected to more than double by 2030.”