So the general trend is up, but is it yet possible to predict short-term fluctuations in the price of Carbon?
As with all markets, there are many factors which influence the price of Carbon, but given the narrow field here is it possible to create a realistic model?

There are the obvious factors: demand; deadlines; gas/oil prices; and weather. But then we must find a way to rationalise, or otherwise quantify, their effects.

Then the less obvious factors: Government policy, public opinion, media attention.

And there are others, often only evident in hindsight: false, or exaggerated, rumours; trades by the big players; and of course natural disasters.

Forecasting, especially of markets, is a Black Art.

This entry was posted on October 7th, 2005 at 09:24 (GMT) and is filed under Forecasting & Modelling . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.