Global warming forecast
Where previously scientists have predicted that there will be a rise of 6 degrees by 2100, they have failed to predict climate change over the next few years with very much confidence.
A team of British scientists have overcome some of the difficulties of accurately forecasting near-term global warming and have created some high-resolution models for climate using powerful computer simulations based on mountains of data.
Their findings provide a much more reliable guide for preparing for extreme weather that provoke such things as flooding in a more useful timescale.
The Guardian’s science correspondent reports:
“From 2010, they warn, every year has at least a 50% chance of exceeding the record year of 1998 when average global temperatures reached 14.54C.
The study’s findings raise the prospect of hotter summers and episodes of torrential rain in the UK; 1998 brought temperatures peaking at 32.2C, although the UK record was set in 2003 at 38.1C.
The forecast from researchers at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter reveals that natural shifts in climate will cancel out warming produced by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activity until 2009, but from then on, temperatures will rise steadily. Temperatures are set to rise over the 10-year period by 0.3C. Beyond 2014, the odds of breaking the temperature record rise even further, the scientists added.
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“A number of the sceptics are saying there’s no warming because they look at the temperature record and see a peak in 1998 and cooler years after that. But we know the peak was because of an El Niño event and that comes out in this forecast,” said Prof Jones. “