European heat
The EC has undertaken an analysis of the effects of global warming on the continent of Europe: Basically, both the north and south of Europe will get warmer, with the result that fewer people will die in the north from cold, but more in the south from heat. The net effect will be (in the words of a report in the FT):
“As many as 87,000 extra deaths a year would occur annually by 2071, assuming a three degree centigrade temperature rise. If efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions limit the rise to 2.2 degrees, additional mortalities would be 36,000 a year.”
In addition, the agriculture and tourism industries are likely to be affected heavily - why head south to follow the sun, if the north is also warm?
Brynmor said:
Tourism will be affected in the Mediterranean in particular. A recent conference in Athens heard that the climate in Greece could become similar to that of southern Tunisia. When you also consider the demographic transition, ie the ageing population of northern Europe, you certainly have a challenge for Mediterranean tourism.