The greenhouse gas emissions from China may be far worse than previously thought, according to a study of provincial data in China. From the abstract:

“Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China’s Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.”

Hat tip: New Scientist Magazine.

Reference:
M. Auffhammer and R. T. Carson [2007]: “Forecasting the Path of China’s CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information“. (August 7, 2007). Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UCB. CUDARE Working Paper 971.

Technorati Tags: greenhouse gas emissions, China, Carbon Dioxide

This entry was posted on March 12th, 2008 at 09:27 (GMT) and is filed under Developing World, Emissions Reductions, Forecasting & Modelling . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.