Archive for the 'Forecasting & Modelling' Category

US a $1 trillion market by 2020?

25th 2008f February, 2008, Peter

Over at New Carbon Cycle, there’s an analysis of the recent forecast by New Carbon Finance (NCF) that the US market for carbon emissions could be worth US$ 1 trillion by 2020. Assuming the adoption of a cap-and-trade system across the US, NCF also predicts a carbon price of US$ 40 per [...]

Shell calls for a global approach to emissions trading

17th 2008f February, 2008, Peter

True to their history as the first company to apply seriously the ideas of scenario planning, oil major Shell has released two scenarios for the future development of energy markets. The two scenarios are:

“In the Scramble scenario, nations rush to secure energy resources for themselves, fearing that energy security is a zero-sum game, [...]

Ships worse than we imagined

13th 2008f February, 2008, Peter

Global shipping traffic may generate nearly three times more carbon emissions than previously believed, according to a UN report seen by the UK Guardian.
“It calculates that annual emissions from the world’s merchant fleet have already reached 1.12bn tonnes of CO², or nearly 4.5% of all global emissions of the main greenhouse gas.
The report suggests that [...]

Areas most at risk from climate change

10th 2008f February, 2008, Peter

The UK Guardian newspaper reports that an international team of climate scientists has identified the geographic regions most at risk from catastrophic climate change in the coming 100 years.
“Although the scientists cannot be sure precisely when each region will reach the point of no return, their assessment warns it may already be too late to [...]

Bad news about forests

3rd 2008f January, 2008, Peter

A new scientific study seems to indicate that the ability of forests to absorb carbon dioxide is decreasing, according to this report.

” “We are currently getting a 50 per cent discount on the climatic impact of our fossil fuel emissions,” the climate scientist John Miller, of the University of Colorado, wrote in the journal Nature [...]